Economic team, nakakita ng pag-asa sa gitna ng multiple challenges

MAHAHARAP ang  incoming administration  sa “multiple challenges” kapag nagsimula nang gampanan nito ang tungkulin  sa Hunyo 30.

Subalit, ang malakas na fundamentals at malinaw na  macroeconomic prospects ang nakapagbigay ng lugar para sa pag-asa,” ayon sa briefer na natipon ni President-elect Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. mula sa itinalaga nitong economic team.

“We have all heard encouraging statements from the incoming economic managers led by outgoing Bangko Sentral governor and incoming finance chief, Benjamin Diokno, that our new administration will be taking off from sound economic fundamentals,” ayon kay Marcos.

“It will not be an easy road ahead, but we are not without the necessary wherewithal and elbow room to manage the challenges,” dagdag na pahayag nito.

Kabilang sa mga hamon na haharapin ng gobyernong Marcos ay ang Covid-19 exit strategy, pagsirit ng presyo ng langis, bumibilis na inflation rate, epekto ng giyera sa pagitan ng Russia at Ukraine, at ang nagbabadyang worldwide food crisis.

Habang pinigil ng  Covid-19  ang momentum ng Pilipinas mula sa pre-pandemic annual growth ng 6%, “now we have bounced back and returned to our robust growth path,” ayon kay Diokno sa kanyang naging talumpati, noong Hunyo 13.

“The International Monetary Fund shares the view about the Philippines’ favorable economic prospects vis-à-vis its peers. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF projects the Philippines to post the fastest growth in the region this year at 6.5 percent,” anito.

Paliwanag ni Diokno, ang ekonomiya ng Pilipinas ay “outperforming neighbors,” yumabong ng 8.3% sa first quarter ng 2022, nalampasan ang  mga bansang Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, at Thailand.

Sinabi pa nito na ang broad-based expansion sa first quarter ng 2022, kung saan ang  agriculture, forestry, at fishing ay lumago ng  0.2 %; industry ng 10.4%; at services ng 8.6%.

Nananatiling pasuray-suray mula sa epekto ng pandemya, “the manufacturing sector is also performing aggressively with the S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 54.1 percent in May this year — the highest in over four years,” ayon kay Diokno.

“Consumer and business confidence are on an upswing: consumer sentiment is seen to hit 30.4 percent for the next 12 months, while business confidence index is expected to hit 69.8 percent for the same period after rising to 59.7 percent in the second quarter of 2022,” aniya pa rin.

Sa kabilang dako, ang foreign direct investments ng Pilipinas ay tumataas,  na may net inflow na tumalon sa 8% sa USD1.71 billion noong Enero at Pebrero 2022, matapos tamaan ang record high na USD10.5 billion noong  2021.

“Gross international reserves (GIR) as of end-April 2022 stood at USD106.8 billion, equivalent to 9.4 months’ worth of imports — three times more than the minimum standard of three months which the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has to maintain,” ayon sa ulat.

“A country’s GIR is deemed “adequate” when it is able to finance at least three months’ worth of the most immediate obligations: imports of goods and debt service,” ayon pa rin sa ulat.

Sinabi naman ni Diokno na  “Household consumption increased by 10.1 percent, while government consumption grew by 3.6 percent; exports and imports also improved with 10.3 percent and 15.6 percent expansion, respectively.”

Ang trabaho ay “significantly improved,” na mayroong 1.5 million jobs  na nalikha mula Pebrero hanggang Marso ngayong taon, mula sa ” unprecedented 17.6 percent unemployment rate” sa kasagsagan ng lockdowns noong  Abril 2020.

At habang kailangan ang malaking paggasta bilang bahagi ng pagtugon ng gobyerno sa pandemiya, na nagresulta ng mataas na  debt-to-GDP ratio, kumpiyansang sinabi ni Diokno na ang utang ng bansa ay 60.4% sa  2024, dalawang taon ng Marcos administration.

Sinabi pa ni Diokno na  “It is worth emphasizing that our current level of debt-to-GDP ratio is well below the figure for other economies, some of which have debts over 100 percent or even 200 percent of their GDP.”

Samantala, nananatiling pumapalo sa 63.5% sa GDP ang utang ng bansa sa pagtatapos ng  first quarter 2022.

“As for provisional advances amounting to USD10.3 billion the BSP extended to the national government at the height of the health crisis in 2020-2021, ” ani Diokno sabay sabing ang mga ito ay magiging fully paid bago ang maturity schedule sa Hunyo 11, 2022. (Daris Jose)